"Those who have succeeded at anything and don't mention luck are kidding themselves." - Larry King

Is The Street Too Optimistic?

"In Barron’s look-ahead piece, not one strategist sees the prospect for a market decline. This is called group-think. Moreover, the percentage of brokerage house analysts and economists to raise their 2011 GDP forecasts has risen substantially. Out of 49 economists surveyed, 35 say the U.S. economy will outperform the already upwardly revised GDP forecasts, only 14 say we will underperform. This is capitulation of historical proportions." in The Big Picture

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

Goldman Sachs: 2011 Will Be The Year Of The USA.

Improving growth, falling unemployment and a sense that the U.S. is returning to "normal" could fuel a 20 percent stock market gain and make 2011 the "Year of the USA," according to Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill.

Jim O'Neill,expressed the view this week that the U.S. will be a bright spot in the world economy, with growth rates of 3.4 percent in 2011 and 3.8 percent in 2012.

"This growth is likely to be strong and robust enough to lead to declining unemployment which, if correct, should mean that the worst of the social consequences of the credit crisis should start to ease. Bond yields should continue to rise further, and the dollar could rally quite a bit."

Related: General Electric Company (NYSE:GE), 3M Company (NYSE:MMM), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE), Bank of America Corporation (Public, NYSE:BAC) , Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) , Visa Inc. (NYSE:V) , MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE:MA), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) , United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) , Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN)

The Public Is Always The Last In.

"History shows us that the public tends to be the last in. From the shoeshine boy in the roaring 1920s, to buyers of the Nifty-Fifty in the Sixties, then dot com stocks in the 1990s, and once again with bonds in the 2000s, main street joins Wall Street when their greed overwhelms their better sense. It is sad but don’t blame me, I am only pointing out this truth.

Don’t be surprised if the public’s rush into commodities marks that as a top, as well — including Gold."

in The Big Picture

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond (ETF) (NYSE:IEF), PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA), Powershares DB Base Metals Fund (ETF) (NYSE:DBB), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO)

Australian Dollar Is Fully Valued. Not Advocating Long Positions.

“While the Australian dollar has good fundamentals in terms of interest rates, its valuation means we’re not recommending buying it at the moment. The same goes for the New Zealand dollar.”

Bilal Hafeez, head of currency strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London

Related: CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSE:FXA)

6 Themes For 2011

Credit Suisse recently detailed their 6 dominant themes for 2011 and how they’re likely to influence markets:

(1) The rise and rise of the emerging market consumer remains the most dominant macro theme – for the third year in a row.

(2) Investors should focus on corporate spend areas in the stock market, one of our key themes since mid-2009. Corporate free cash flow, profitability and investment intentions are all abnormally high, while corporates have seldom been as under-leveraged. We believe corporates will want to focus on non-discretionary or short-cycle areas, i.e. areas where there is a relatively quick pay-back.

(3) Plays on abnormally low real interest rates: we believe that the monetary authorities in the developed world will keep real rates artificially low to facilitate the deleveraging of $6.3tn of G4 excess leverage. If real yields rise too far and threaten the economic recovery (which they would if QE2 ended, in our judgement) or if the fiscal authorities over-tightened, we believe QE would be renewed in the US – and via a weaker dollar would force other developed market central banks to respond.

(4) M&A is set to increase sharply

(5) Investors will pay more of a premium for both growth and pricing power. Growth will be at premium because the discount rate is likely to remain abnormally low (increasing the value of long duration earnings), while it is hard to see how this will be a normal recovery, with $6.3trn of excess leverage in the developed world, making growth more valuable. Companies with pricing power deserve a premium, given excess capacity of around 4% of GDP in the developed world on our estimates, increasing Chinese competition and rising input costs.

(6) Investors should avoid companies exposed to increased competition from Chinese companies.

in The PragCap

Rosenberg`s US Economy Outlook. Beware Of Global Multinational Cyclicals.

"In my view, real GDP growth in the U.S.A. is set to slow from around 3% in 2010 to 2% in 2011, or possibly even lower. This is not a double-dip but it is a slower growth profile. We went to 3% in 2010 from -2.6% in 2009 so the second derivative was positive. But for the coming year, the second derivative is likely going to decline. This augurs for a non-cyclical exposure; more defensive and still yield-oriented. As the Bank of Canada strongly suggested, global growth is going to slow and hence a sense of caution over global multinational cyclicals is warranted."- David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff

Related Stocks: General Electric (GE), Procter & Gamble (PG), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), John Deere (DE), Nike (NKE)

Rogoff On The Eurozone: We’ll Be Very Lucky To Avoid Restructuring.

“They can’t just be in a state of denial. They’ve tried to guarantee everything, to say, ‘Well, Germany is behind it and the IMF is behind it, it’s inconceivable for a euro-zone country to restructure.’ We’ll be very lucky to avoid restructuring in countries such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal."

in Bloomberg

The Story Of 2011 Will Be Interest Rates.

"The market story of 2011 I believe will be interest rates. In Asia, central bankers will raise them in order to normalize the level relative to growing inflation. In Europe, sovereign stress will keep them elevated and in the US, a recovering economy and rising inflation will see them higher in the face of the Fed’s best attempt to suppress them. With respect to equities, this rising rate environment will create a challenge in terms of impacting still overleveraged economies and companies and in pricing risk. Because of the influence of rates, a good economy doesn’t always equate to a good stock market as the past two years saw a good stock market and a weak economy."

in Ritholtz.com

Related: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (Public, NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (Public, NYSE:TLT) , SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (Public, NYSE:DIA)

Relying On Economic Data To Trade Is Difficult, If Not Impossible.

"Relying on government statistics to track the fundamentals of the economy is a lot like driving by looking in the rear view mirror—and a foggy one at that. The data comes with an unavoidable and sometimes significant delay, it is often manipulated and estimated, and many series are subject to substantial revision long after the fact. That's why it can be more rewarding to watch market-based indicators (i.e., prices), since they reflect real-time information, and they incorporate the collective knowledge and decisions of hundreds of millions of economic actors with access to every conceivable piece of information."

in Calafia Beach Pundit

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

U.S. Economy Adds 39,000 Jobs in November, Far Fewer Than Expected; Unemployment Rate Up to 9.8%

Doubling And Tripling Your Money...

I am re-printing a story I wrote a few months ago:

"Last night I had dinner with some brokers in a party I`ve attended with my wife. We were talking markets even though I do not really like to talk about the market when I am out of the office. But these guys are funny and always have some nice war stories to tell about their costumers.

This one I think its inspirational for all of us. One of the customers opened an account in July with 60,000 USD. He only traded Dax Warrants during this period and he was able to run his account to an astonishing 1,670,000 USD a few weeks ago. Then a small disaster struck and the account come down to 300,000 USD but right away he rebuilt it to 800,000 USD. Of course this was all before this Dubai`s mini-crisis and I can`t wait to know what has happened to his trading account in the last 2 trading days.

Anyway, this client is a medical doctor over 60 years old that placed most of his trades through the phone because he thinks trading platforms are not user friendly...What about that?

Another 2 interesting numbers. Only 8% of all these brokerage house customers are able to win over an extended period of time and the median lasting time of a trading account before it goes to ZERO is 6 months. Where does that money go to? To the trading pros, of course."

General Electric Is Down For 6 Straight Sessions.

General Electric (GE) will probably open lower today again, after dropping for 6 consecutive trading sessions. It may be an interesting time to play for a rebound in this stocks.

I will keep track of this trade on the comments section.

Have a great trading day.

VXX, The Volatility ETF Makes A New Low.

The volatility ETF, iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX) is making a new all time low. While I do not recommend using the ETF for medium and long term plays because of the contango, a short term play on the long side seems interesting at this point.

3 Stocks That Are Up 10 Days In A Row.

If you are looking for overbought stocks to sell short, or to play via options, here are 3 stocks that have had a 10 day consecutive winning streak: Schlumberger Limited. (SLB), Virgin Media Inc. (VMED) and TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG).

The market has been so enthusiastic that even a dinosaur like Microsoft (MSFT) has managed to rally for 6 consecutive session.

These are interesting very short term play on the short side of the market.

I will leave you with the amazing Pagani Zonda test drive:

Have a great day.

Whitney: I Expect Multiple Municipal Defaults To Trigger Indiscriminate Selling.

“The level of complacency around this issue is alarming. Most assume, as last week’s Buttonwood panel did, that the federal government will simply come to the rescue of the states without appreciating the immensity of the cumulative state-budget gaps. I expect multiple municipal defaults to trigger indiscriminate selling, which will prompt a federal response. Solutions attempted in piecemeal fashion, as we’ve seen thus far, would amount to constantly putting out recurring fires.

Rather than waiting for more federal intervention, states need to make their own hard decisions and not kick the can down the road. How will taxpayers from fiscally conservative states like Texas or Nebraska feel about bailing out threadbare Illinois or California? Let’s hope we never have to find out.”

Meredith Whitney

Are You Bearish? Here Are A Few Stocks With A Good Probability Of Correcting.

Schlumberger Limited. (NYSE:SLB) is on a 10 day winning streak, Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS) is currently on a 8 day winning streak and very, very overbought and finally American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) on a 7 day winning streak.

I am bearish and short, waiting for a classic buy the rumor, sell the news reaction this week.

Have a great trading session.

If you want to relax 5 minutes while listening to a good sound, try this:

The national are one of my favorite bands.

US Economy To Slow Further

ECRI`s Lakshman Achuthan expects no double dip in the economy, but he still believes that the US economy is going to slow further:

"Lakshman Achuthan and the team at ECRI not only predicted the recession, but also predicted the recovery. In their most controversial call earlier this year they called for a slowdown, but not a double dip. That call is looking pretty good based on recent data. Achuthan sees no double dip going forward, but believes the economy is going to slow further."

in The Prag Cap

Milton Friedman On Capitalism

I have listened and read so many economic misconceptions recently that I think all readers will benefit from Milton Friedman`s words. I am going to post his best video interviews over the next few weeks, especially on weekends.

Have a great trading day.

Bill Gross Calls QE A Ponzi Scheme So Large That Probably Should Be Renamed To Sammy Scheme In Honor Of Uncle Sam.

Bill Gross is very critical of quantitative easing effors from the Federal Reserve and eevn calls it a a "Ponzi Scheme":

"The Fed, in effect, is telling the markets not to worry about our fiscal deficits, it will be the buyer of first and perhaps last resort. There is no need – as with Charles Ponzi – to find an increasing amount of future gullibles, they will just write the check themselves. I ask you: Has there ever been a Ponzi scheme so brazen? There has not. This one is so unique that it requires a new name. I call it a Sammy scheme, in honor of Uncle Sam and the politicians (as well as its citizens) who have brought us to this critical moment in time. It is not a Bernanke scheme, because this is his only alternative and he shares no responsibility for its origin. It is a Sammy scheme – you and I, and the politicians that we elect every two years – deserve all the blame.
While Gross isn't sure if QE 2 will work due to our liquidity trap predicament, he is sure who to blame for getting us into this mess. Gross targets the politics of the country at large."

And Bill Gross adds,

"Each party has shown it can add hundreds of billions of dollars to the national debt with little to show for it or move our military from one country to the next chasing phantoms instead of focusing on more serious problems back home. This isn’t a choice between chocolate and vanilla folks, it’s all rocky road: a few marshmallows to get you excited before the election, but with a lot of nuts to ruin the aftermath."

The impact of this politcal mess and QE 2 is extremely limited returns for investors in the bond market (and the stock market too). That's because the combination of inflation and negative interest rates is creating a uniquely bad environment for bondholders, according to Bill Gross.

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oi ETF (NYSE:SCO), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs(ETF) (NYSE:FAZ), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (Public, NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (Public, NYSE:TLT)

Fantastic Trading Session. It Does Not Get Much Better Then This.

Today I am sharing with all the readers the report sent to subscribers after the closing bell. We had a phenomenal performance in our "Earnings 1 Day Plays", hitting 5 in 5 for a cumulative performance of 25.67%. The system also did great today and is trading at new all time highs.

The daily stock picking system has gained +2.90% in today`s session Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) +3.93% and The Progressive Corporation (PGR) +1.86%). It was a very good day for the system after a few subpar sessions. (DSP System`s October Performance (to date): +4.44%)


Extra System Trades Summary:

- I am still short eMini S&P Futures as an intermediate short play ( spreadsheet);

- There were no intraday trades on oil, the system did not trigger any signals; Nymex Oil Futures, had a quiet session on regular trading hours;

- we have a few "earnings 1 day" plays at work and by the look of it we will cash in big tomorrow; Our long play are rising on after hours trading: F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV) 5.23% , Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) 2.71%, JDA Software Group, Inc. (JDAS) 9.26%, Life Technologies Corp. (LIFE) 2.01% and our short play is Century Aluminum Company (CENX) is falling -6.46%. So, its 5 in 5 for us tonight. It does not get much better then this, does it?

- finally our forex EURUSD short is gaining some traction and its up 110 ticks since we opened it; I am expecting it will hit our target in 2-3 days;

Have a great day.

Housing Data Disappoints. Stocks Down.

"A disappointing report. Home prices broadly declined in August. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both composites saw a weakening in year-over-year figures, as compared to July, indicating that the housing market continues to bounce along the recent lows."

David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's

related: iShares Dow Jones US Home Const. (ETF) (Public, NYSE:ITB), Lennar Corporation (Public, NYSE:LEN), D.R. Horton, Inc. (Public, NYSE:DHI) , PulteGroup, Inc. (Public, NYSE:PHM) , The Ryland Group, Inc. (Public, NYSE:RYL)

Volcker On Inflation

"Inflation is not a problem right now. It won't be a problem next year, it won't be a problem for several years. I see no possibility, frankly, that a deflation will take place. Over a period of time, price stability will be conducive to a strong economy."

Paul Volcker

Related stocks and ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU), Harmony Gold Mining Co. (ADR) (NYSE:HMY), Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:GOLD), Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX), NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (AMEX:NG)

Is Bank Of America (BAC) Ready For A Bounce?

Bank Of America (BAC) is very oversold and looks poised for a recovery rally:

On other topic, if you are into alternative rock, watch this live performance, "The National - Secret Meeting":

A Holocaust For Savers

"The free money game for the banks has been a holocaust for savers and the elderly. It’s also been the most despicable corporate giveaway in American History.”

in The Reformed Broker

Related stocks: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) , Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS)

A Great Trader Is Like An Athlete.

"A great trader is like a great athlete . You have to have natural skills, but you have to train yourself how to use them".

Pit Bull Trader

Schiff: The Gold Standard Will Come Back

"At some point the world is going back to the Gold Standard"

Peter Schiff, in Max Keiser Show

Commercial Real Estate Prices Keep Falling. Should You Worry?

"The Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index measured a 3.3% decrease in August, bringing the index to 105.37. This is the lowest recorded result since the beginning of the downturn, surpassing the old recession level low of 107.98, which occurred in October 2009. National prices are 7.6% below the value recorded last year. Since the peak in October 2007, prices have fallen 45.1%."

For a long time, pundits were referring to the fall in commercial real estate has the next shoe to drop that would create another meltdown in banking like in 2008. Very little has been written or said about this topic in the last few months, but the termites are still in the building`s foundations.

Today is Champions League night again, and I will leave with one of the best goals of the 2009/2010 edition. A brilliant move from Arsenal`s Samir Nasri (the audio is in a strange language but it really does not matter :)).

Related stocks: Bank Of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Simon Property Group (SPG), Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM), Boston Properties, Inc. (BXP)

Time For A Rebound In The VXX ETF?

Even with all the contango issues affecting the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX) price, its probably time for a rebound in this ETF:

Today is Champions League night. I am looking forward to the classic, Real Madrid - AC Milan. I am betting on a easy win for the spaniards.

Have a great trading session.

The Market Correction Is Here. Fasten Your Seat Belts.

There`s no Goldman Sachs trading call that can stop this market correction now...


Fasten your seat belts. I am short and shorting.

Goldman Sachs: Stock Market Outlook

“We expect the S&P 500 will rise another 2% to reach our year-end 2010 target of 1200. We anticipate US equities will trade sideways during 1Q 2011 as economic uncertainty remains high. Our revised 12-month price target of 1275 (from 1250) reflects a potential price return of 9% from current levels. The cost of equity should decline slightly as 2011 progresses and investors turn their attention to the economic growth prospects for 2012.”

Source: Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS)

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)

Felix Zulauf Expects A Correction In Most Assets Going Into The Year End.

"Zulauf believes gold is in a secular bull market, but that the near-term move is overextended. More specifically, Zulauf says the downside in the dollar is overdone and he foresees a dollar rally into the year-end. This will cause a correction in most assets – equities, commodities and gold. He says the correction in gold as a buying opportunity, however."

In The Prag Cap

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oi ETF (NYSE:SCO), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs(ETF) (NYSE:FAZ), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ)

This Week`s Swing Trades And Earnings Plays

These were the trades we took last week. I am adding live intraday signals on Nymex Oil Futures (CL) and on eMini S&P Futures (ES) to the trading subscription service, starting Monday.

I have also updated the system`s performance chart. The system is now up 102.60% year to date and up 4% in October.

Have a great weekend.

Related stocks: LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE:LDK) , VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW), DIRECTV (NASDAQ:DTV), Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE:GCI) , Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) , Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ:HBAN) , ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) (NYSE:SCCO) , NetApp Inc. (NASDAQ:NTAP), Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), Cummins Inc. (Public, NYSE:CMI), The Southern Company (Public, NYSE:SO)

The US Dollar Is Poised For A Rally.

I had to share these stats with you:

"Based on the net speculative positions in the USD there is a 100% chance (based on past occurrences) that the dollar will rally from here. According to a report today from Credit Suisse the US dollar has rallied 100% of the time from these levels on a 3 month basis."

Source: Credit Suisse

Related ETFs: Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) , ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT)

Stephen Roach: Quantitative Easing Will Not Work.

Great video interview with Stephen Roach. This man is not always right (actually his track record is nothing to be impressed about) but he has some very good points on QE.

Have a great trading day.

Soros: A Downturn In 2011

"George Soros, one of the few investment gurus who actually predicted the credit crisis, now believes the global economy is at substantial risk of a downturn in 2011. Soros believes the stagnant economy will result in continued low employment, but an increase in corporate M&A."

in The Prag Cap

There was a rumor out today that Lòreal may bid for Avon Products (AVP). That wouldn`t surprise me at all...

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (MDC) Is Down For The 10th Consecutive Session.

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:MDC) is down for the 10th consecutive session. If it sinks a bit further I may give it a shot on the long side later today.

Pulte Homes (PHM) was also on a 7 day losing streak, but has opened lower and reversed. I am watching these names for trading opportunities.

Stock Market Cartoon: October Is A Dangerous Month To Speculate In Stocks

Investor Sentiment Continues To Rise. A Correction Is Looming.

"The group behavior continues to build momentum as the herd becomes convinced that stocks have nowhere to go but up. This week’s sentiment surveys showed a continuing rise in bullish sentiment. The AAII hit an usually high level of 49% while the Investors Intelligence Survey also jumped to a fresh multi-month high of 43.6%. Charles Rotblut of AAII elaborated on the results:

“Individual investors continue to react positively to this fall’s global rise in stock prices, as can be seen in the survey results. The 21.3-point spread between bullish and bearish sentiment suggests that optimism remains below levels that would be considered excessive, however. (The bull-bear spread has topped 40 points nearly 70 times since 1987.) This suggests that though many individual investors are hopeful, concerns about the economy, interest rates and the federal deficit have not faded into the background.”"

in The Prag Cap

Related ETFs: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

The Secular Bear Market: A Technical View

An interesting technical analysis on the secular bear market in US equities: LINK

Have a great trading day.

George Soros: Germany Is Sending Europe Into A Deflationary Spiral

Deficit reduction by a creditor country such as Germany is in direct contradiction of the lessons learned from the Great Depression of the 1930s. When both creditor and debtor countries reduce their deficits amid high unemployment they set in motion a deflationary spiral in debtor countries. It is liable to push Europe into a period of prolonged stagnation or worse.

George Soros, October 5th

US Stocks Are Vulnerable, Says Shilling

"With the slowing U.S. economy, looming deflation and likely resumption of eurozone woes, stocks in general appear vulnerable"

Gary Shilling, A. Gary Shilling & Company, Economic Consultants

The Stock Market Rally Is On Shaky Ground And Severely Overextended

"The stock market rally is on shaky ground and severely overextended. It is being propelled by a combination of momentum-oriented trading strategies and dubious fundamental assumptions. The traders have no real fundamental beliefs and will, as usual, head for the exits as soon as the trend begins to waver."

in Comstock

Related ETFs: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

There Has Been An Above Average Level Of Bullish Sentiment For 4 Consecutive Weeks

“Though there has been an above average level of bullish sentiment for four consecutive weeks, it remains a cautious optimism. As is evidenced by the recent rebound in bearish sentiment, many individual investors continue to worry about the pace of the economic recovery and the uncertainty coming out of Washington. Yields are also an issue, and I continue to receive frequent calls about how to find dividend-yielding stocks.”

Charles Rotblut, AAII

Related ETFs: iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE:VXX), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (NYSE:IWM), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (NYSE:SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA)

Playing A Rebound In Sara Lee (SLE)

Sara Lee (SLE) has traded down for 6 consecutive trading sessions. That is obviously a rare event and the odds of a short term 1-2 days rebound are quite high. On the last 9 occurrences the stock averaged a gain of 0.50% with a winning probability above 75%.

Those aren`t bad odds, are they?

Besides the stock is trading at the 200 day moving average. It probably will open lower today and that will be a good entry point.

Have a great trading day.

The CRB Spot Commodities Index Reaches A New All Time High

"The CRB Spot Commodities Index today reached a new all-time high (485), eclipsing the previous high (481) set in July 2008. This can be interpreted in many ways, of course, but let me state the obvious: this is not a symptom of deflation, and this is not a precursor of a double-dip recession. This is unambiguously symptomatic of growth and accommodative monetary policy."

in Calafia Beach Pundit

Related ETFs: PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA) , Powershares DB Base Metals Fund (ETF) (NYSE:DBB), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSE:UNG)

Jim O`Neill: Not Convinced About The Sustainability Of The Gold Move

"I am not convinced about the sustainability of the gold move"

Jim O`Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Video Interview : Hugh Hendry, The Most Eccentric Hedge Fund Manager

Fantastic video interview with my favourite money manager, the eccentric Hugh Hendry.

Part I


Part II


Part III

Art Cashin Is Calling The Market Top

Art Cashin recently said that the S&P 500 was going to rally to 1200. He is one of the best contrarian indicators out there, so it gives me added conviction to my short lines:

“The S&P 1,130 to 1,133 will become the support level and we’ll see if we can build on it. You can make a projection that this could lead as high as 1,200 on the S&P.”

That is amazing, Art. Keep it coming.


Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM)

Video: Chanos Says China Is The Next Enron...

"James Chanos of Kynikos Associates says China is the next Enron. Of course, this would sound ridiculous if Chanos hadn’t been one of the original people to uncover the Enron scandal. Chanos is a master short seller, accountant and hedge fund manager. He essentially believes the Chinese economy is one big government run ponzi scheme. He thinks it will end very badly"

in The Prag Cap

Is The Smart Money Indicator Giving A Sell Signal?

According to Bespoke Investment Group the current stock market rally has been fueled mostly by individual investors:

"Individual investors may be moving back into stocks, as gains in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index this month occur at the start of the trading day, the time when they enter most transactions, Bespoke Investment Group LLC said."

in Bloomberg

Bespoke adds, "Investors are looking out of the side window and reacting to the financial news of the day or hour, for that matter.”

The S&P 500’s average hourly change between the prior close and 10 a.m. is 0.45 percent, higher than the 0.18 percent that occurs in the next 60 minutes until 11 a.m., according to a Sept. 17 report sent to clients by Bespoke. The difference during the remaining one-hour segments of a session is less than 0.1 percent. The benchmark index for American equities has risen more than 8 percent this month.

The increase in the hourly percent change is a reversal from the last two weeks of August, when most of the declines happened in the first half hour of trading, Bespoke said. The S&P 500 averaged a drop of 0.43 percent each day through 10 a.m. during that period.

The declines in the early part of the sessions in August created a bullish signal in the “Smart Money Indicator,” the report said. The SMI says retail investors, or individuals, trade near the start of sessions, while institutional investment actions are carried out mainly near the close.

Related stocks: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) , Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) , JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG), Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX)

Latest Article On Seeking Alpha

You can read my latest article on Seeking Alpha about the japanese yen here:

"Roubini and Faber Disagree on Yen Outlook"

Marc Faber expressed his bullish views on the japanese stock market on the CLSA Conference in Hong Kong, "It’s a country that people have given up on. The catalyst for a rally could from come a weakening yen, which in turn would weaken the attractiveness of the bond market and push investors to equities in the search for dividend yields. I think there is an opportunity, because compared to the bond yield Japanese stocks are inexpensive."

Have a great trading day.

New Thoughts On The Inflation/Deflation Debate

I found this very interesting analysis on the inflation/deflation debate written by Scott Grannis:

"There are a number of market-based indicators that tell us that money is not in short supply, and that money is in fact in abundant supply. If the dollar is weak relative to other currencies, it's because there is an abundant supply of dollars relative to other currencies. If gold and commodity prices are rising, it's because there is an abundant supply of dollars—lots of dollars chasing a limited outstanding stock of gold. A steep yield curve also reflects abundant money, because it is the market's way of saying that short-term interest rates are going to have to rise by a lot at some point in order to reverse the Fed's current willingness to over-supply dollars to the world."

Of course this is a very important discussion because the investors who get this right will be well positioned to profit from the upcoming moves in risk assets.

With the high correlation between equities, commodities and currencies I expect the risky assets to move all in the same direction. If inflation keeps rising, the risk trade will extent further into new high grounds, but if deflation kicks in, expect major bear markets everywhere...

Related: iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQQ), ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (Public, NYSE:TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (NYSE:TLT), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Indx (ETF) (NYSE:EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ)

Soros: Gold Is The Ultimate Bubble

"Gold is the ultimate bubble. It is certainly not safe." , George Soros said at an event in New York sponsored by Reuters.

Soros said he expects a repeat of the historical pattern of bull runs in assets like gold ultimately hitting records and then suddenly reversing. Gold is currently the only bull market, Soros said, adding that it may continue to rise but "it's not going to last forever."

Related stocks and ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU), Harmony Gold Mining Co. (ADR) (NYSE:HMY), Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:GOLD), Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX), NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (Public, AMEX:NG)

Greenspan On Gold

The former central banker noted that gold, the price of which has been surging, still represents the ultimate means of payment. What is happening in that market is a signal there is a problem with respect to currency markets. He reckons the problem is not a large one, but the jump in gold prices could be the canary in the coal mine to keep an eye on.

Related stocks and ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU), Harmony Gold Mining Co. (ADR) (NYSE:HMY), Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:GOLD), Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX), NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (Public, AMEX:NG)

Stock Alert: SandRidge Energy (SD)

Sandridge Energy (SD) rallies 4.87 +0.25 (5.41%) without any major news.

Is the bottom in for this stock?

Daily Stock Trading System Update: Here are the results for the session of September 14th: VMware (VMW) +2.66% and Hershey Company (HSY) -0.57%.

System Performance in September: +9.65% Long Only Version and +2.8% for the (SPY) hedged version.

Low Cash Levels In Mutual Funds: Warning Signal

“The percentage of mutual funds cash levels was 3.4% in July. This is the lowest percentage cash level ever and is near levels that accompanied the 2007 equity market peak.”

The Pragmatic Capitalist underlines that the last two times we witnessed cash levels near these levels were directly before the 1999 market implosion and the 2008 market debacle. And he adds "surely it’s unwise to use any single indicator to make market decisions, however, this is one macro indicator that is worth noting."

There is sound reasons to be cautions with long positions going forward. Besides, the stock market`s seasonality is terrible going into October.

Graph with Mutual Funds cash levels:


Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM)

Gold Is Poised For A Correction

I recently read this argument from a money manager: "Either a swift economic recovery or further dismal economic performance should bring new buyers into the gold market."

Arguments presented as win/ win situations -- better if the economy improves, better if the economy goes south -- are usually found closer to the peak of a move than the beginning. Are we very close to a major top in gold and gold miners?

The chart shows we are trading very close to major resistance, so its "make it or break it", McKinsey style. (Click to enlarge)

Another interesting analysis is comparing what gold as been doing versus other assets. This is an interesting chart I found in The Pragmatic Capitalism:

Gold looks expensive relative to stocks and to agriculture commodities on a historical basis. My view is that there is a great risk in opening new gold long positions at these price levels and the risk of a sudden, large market correction is quite high.

Gold stocks like Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG) and New Gold (NGD) have reversed close to resistance from the June highs and look poised to continue the downside movement. Gold Fields (GFI) is way overbought and will probably correct meaningfully.

This article was originally published in Seeking Alpha.

Is The Move In Gold Near Its End?

Very interesting gold analysis on Bespoke Investment Group website:

Today we read one article that quoted an analyst as saying "Either a swift economic recovery or further dismal economic performance should bring new buyers into the market." We realize that there are certainly some valid arguments for buying gold, but a comment like this is not one of them. Now, we wouldn't necessarily go as far as to say that gold is in a bubble. After all, unlike a lot of recent asset bubbles where prices skyrocketed even as supply expanded, the supply of gold is relatively constrained. That being said, arguments presented as a win win regardless of the outcome are usually found closer to the peak of a move than the beginning.

Related stocks and ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX), Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE:NEM), AngloGold Ashanti Limited (ADR) (NYSE:AU), Harmony Gold Mining Co. (ADR) (NYSE:HMY), Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:GOLD), Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (NYSE:ABX), NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (Public, AMEX:NG)

The “Irrational” Move In Gold Is Very Much Alive. Its Likely To Find Support On Any Significant Weakness.

"Personally, I still believe the “irrational” move in gold is very much alive and will likely find support on any significant weakness. Gold is likely to remain the “go to” asset for investors looking for a hedge to the fear and uncertainty of the current environment. The Euro is being viewed as a faulty fiat currency (incorrectly I believe) and the US dollar is believed to be in long-term disarray due to the actions of the Fed. As long as the de-leveraging cycle persists and the sovereign debt woes continue we are likely to continue to see strong demand for gold."

in The Prag Cap

Related: New Gold Inc. (USA) (NGD), Goldcorp Inc. (USA) (GG), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)

Dennis Gartman: Gold Prices Outlook

Related ETF: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (Public, NYSE:GLD)

Paul Tudor Jones Stock Picks

According to stockpickr.com, Paul Tudor Jones top holdings are two almost unknown stocks, a chinese insurance company CNinsure Inc. (NASDAQ:CISG) and a small cap biotech, Progenics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNX).

That is very interesting and I would bet alongside Paul anytime. He has been the best money manager in Wall Street for decades.

They are both well below their 52 week highs, so there is no risk of buying overextended stocks.

Here`s a short summary of both companies:

CNinsure Inc. is an independent insurance intermediary company operating in China. The Company had 48,693 sales professionals, 1,421 claims adjustors and 571 sales and service outlets operating in 23 provinces as of April 15, 2010. As an insurance intermediary company, it does not assume underwriting risks. The Company distributes to customers in China a range of property, casualty and life insurance products underwritten by domestic and foreign insurance companies operating in China and provides insurance claims adjusting services, such as damage assessment, survey, authentication and loss estimation. It also provides services, such as around-the-clock emergency services and assistance with claim settlement, to its customers, individuals and institutions that purchase insurance products through CNinsure. In July 2010, CNinsure announced the acquisition of InsCom Holding Limited.

Progenics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of therapeutic products to treat the unmet medical needs of patients with debilitating conditions and life-threatening diseases. The Company’s principal programs are directed towards supportive care, oncology and virology. In supportive care, the Company’s first commercial product is RELISTOR (methylnaltrexone bromide) subcutaneous injection, a therapy for opioid-induced constipation (OIC) approved for sale in over 40 countries worldwide. In the area of prostate cancer, Progenics is conducting a Phase I clinical trial of a fully human monoclonal antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) directed against prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA). In the area of virology, the Company is developing a viral-entry inhibitor (a humanized monoclonal antibody), PRO 140, for infection due to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS).

Stocks With the Highest Short Interest

Bespoke Investment Group published an interesting article regarding stocks with the highest short interest (these stocks can suddenly rally due to short covering squeezes):

"Below is a list of the stocks in the Russell 1,000 with the highest short interest as a percentage of float. Generally when the market is rising, the most heavily shorted stocks outperform, and we've seen that so far this month as well.

In the Russell 1000 Index, AutoNation, Inc. (NYSE:AN) has the highest short interest as a percentage of float at 40.74%. With a gain of 25%, AN has hit the shorts pretty hard year to date. Alliance Data Systems Corporation (NYSE:ADS) and MGM Resorts International. (NYSE:MGM) rank second and third in terms of short interest and are the only other names with SIPF above 30%. SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ:SPWRA) and Sears Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ:SHLD) round out the top five with SIPF of 27.65% and 26.05% respectively.

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX), MBIA Inc. (NYSE:MBI) , and Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS) are all on the list as well, and the shorts have gotten killed in these names this year. All are up more than 100% year to date. Some other notable names on the list include Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR), United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X), First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR), Jefferies Group, Inc. (NYSE:JEF), American International Group, Inc. (NYSE:AIG), Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NYSE:NWL), and Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ:GRMN)."

in BIG

Krugman: Its All Downhill From Here

“I’ve had a couple of conversations lately with people who follow politics and public affairs, but aren’t that close to the economic discussion — and I’ve discovered that there are two comforting delusions still out there.

Delusion #1 is that we’re on the road to recovery, just more slowly than we’d like; to be fair, the White House keeps saying this.

But it’s not at all true. GDP is growing below potential; employment, even if you focus just on private employment, is growing more slowly than the working-age population. If you ask how long it will take us to return to, say, 5 percent unemployment on the current track, the answer is forever.

Delusion #2 is the belief that the stimulus may yet do the trick, because there are still substantial funds unspent. I tried to deal with this last year. The level of GDP depends not on total funds spent, but on the rate at which funds are being spent, which has already peaked; GDP growth on the rate of change in the rate at which funds are being spent, which peaked last year. It’s all downhill from here.”

Doug Kass: Short Bonds

At current yields, bonds represent certificates of confiscation, and bond holders face the likelihood of large capital losses.
I believe that, on a risk/reward basis, shorting fixed income is among the most attractive investment strategies in the year(s) ahead.

Bearish economic concerns are overblown. There will be no double-dip. Most indicators point toward a domestic economic growth rate that is moderating but also likely to be sustained.

The 2.60% yield on the 10-year U.S. note is discounting a double-dip. Over the course of the past 60 years, the 10-year note has yielded 365 basis points more than GDP growth. In other words, the fixed-income market is now discounting an unlikely 1% drop in GDP (2.60% less 3.65%).

Over the same time frame, the yield on the 10-year U.S. note has averaged about 300 basis points more than the inflation rate. While zero-interest-rate policy argues for a somewhat lower relationship, since the implied inflation rate in TIPS is about 1.6% now, this would imply that the yield on the 10-year U.S. note should be closer to 4.60%, or 200 basis points above the current reading.

in The Street.com

The Summer Is Over In Wall Street

The trading desks will begin to fill back up next week as the unofficial summer comes to an end this weekend. This usually means market activity starts to pick up again, and we could be in store for a new trend to emerge over the last four months of the year.

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM)

China Is Signaling Rising Stocks In The US

"In the past few years I’ve often noted the tendency of China’s Shanghai composite to lead the US equity market. It led us down from 2007, bottomed before the S&P in 2008, topped in late 2009, signaled a death cross signal several months before the S&P signaled the same indicator (which subsequently sent the bears on a rampage), deteriorated noticeably in April (while US stocks were hitting their highs) and has since bottomed in July. The index has rallied 14% off its lows and at this juncture is providing a pretty bullish indication for US stocks."

in The Prag Cap

Related ETFs: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (FXI), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), PowerShares Gld Drg Haltr USX China(ETF) (PGJ)

Buy The Strongest Stocks, Avoid The Laggards

This study shows that the best performing stocks keep on outperforming, while the laggards keep showing a lousy relative performance.

This study considers the stock performance over the last 12 months, and how its performs 12 months forward.

Some of the strongest market performers in their sectors are, The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. (EL), Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. (CTSH), SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) , Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) , VMware, Inc. (VMW), Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) and Equity Residential (EQR).

The Confidence Will Plunge Faster When Government Stops Spending

“The risk is that the government can’t keep spending money to keep the economy afloat. The government’s thrown everything and if they fail, the confidence will plunge much faster.”

Russell Abrams, Titan Capital Group LLC

Related ETF: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (QID), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX)

Short Pick: Salesforce.com (CRM)

"Cloud computing is a great story just like the Internet was a decade ago. But the stock price (salesforce.com, inc. (CRM)) , at 150 times trailing earnings, is completely divorced from any sort of sane valuation based on fundamentals or growth prospects."

Bret Jensen, chief investment officer at Simplified Asset Management

James Montier: Bond Market Analysis

“In essence, the bond market is implying a 70% probability that the US turns Japanese.”

James Montier, GMO's asset allocation team

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (TLT)

The 3 Best Performing Stocks In August Were Tech Stocks

McAfee, Inc. (MFE), priceline.com Incorporated (PCLN) and Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) were the 3 best S&P 500 Index performing stocks in August.

McAfee rose 42%, Priceline rallied 29% and Akamai, one of the strongest stocks in 2010, surged 20 percent.

Renowned Analyst Sees The S&P 500 Index At 450

Albert Edwards, whose opinion, of all macro economists, is among the most respected by Zero Hedge staff, has just thrown down the gauntlet. In his just released piece he mocks the Black Knight, compares the market to a Polish dude with a bullet stuck in his head, makes fun of koolaid drinking permabulls, and sets his estimate for the S&P... at 450.

in Daily Crux

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS) , ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (NYSE:QID)

September Is The Worst Month For Stocks

(Source: The Prag Cap)

This chart illustrates the Dow Jones` average performance for each calendar month since 1950. It is worth noting that the worst calendar month for stock market performance is fast approaching.

Related: Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF) (FAS), Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs(ETF) (FAZ) , Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), Technology SPDR (ETF) (XLK), Materials SPDR (ETF) (XLB)

Oil Prices Forecast For 2010 And 2011

Barclays Capital has cut its oil price forecasts for 2011 and this year, citing concern about the economic slowdown. The bank cut its 2010 price forecast for benchmark US crude by 4 dollars per barrel to $78 and reduced its 2011 forecast by 7 dollars ºer barrel to 85.

The report added, "There is enough fundamental strength to support prices above the $70 which is increasingly looking like a minimum for the basic health of the industry, but there is also enough macroeconomic disquiet to make any breakout of prices to the upside difficult to sustain"

Related stocks: Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO), Suncor Energy Inc. (USA) (SU) , BP plc (ADR) (BP), Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) , Transocean LTD (RIG), Halliburton Company (HAL), Schlumberger Limited. (SLB)

Gold Outlook: A New High Is Coming

The primary trend for gold remains very much intact and upward. The recent drop in price from the historical high of $1265 to $1155 looks to have been nothing more than a small correction in the bigger picture. However, I expect to see some formidable resistance at $1250 level. But, I believe that this level will be breached and we will soon see a new historical high for the gold price.

David Levenstein is a leading expert on investing in precious metals .He brings over 30 years experience in futures, equities, forex and bullion.

in Mineweb.com

Related: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD) , Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) , Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) , Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD), Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (CDE), Goldcorp Inc. (USA) (GG)

Intel (INTC) Has A Higher Dividend Then Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO) And General Electric (GE)

Intel (INTC) has one of the higher dividend yields in the Dow as well at 3.33%. One would never think it, but Intel has a higher yield than names like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, and General Electric.

in Bespoke

Is The S&P 500 Opening Price Important For The Day`s Price Action?

Ever wonder what the direction of the market at the open means for the rest of the day? On days when the market opens up, does it usually continue higher or go lower? Using the S&P 500 tracking SPY ETF, we went back to 1993 (when SPY began trading) to see what the historical trend has been.

In the chart below, we highlight the number of days over the last 50 days that the SPY ETF opened in one direction and then went in the other direction from the open to the close. This criteria is met if the ETF opens up and then goes down from the open to the close or opens down and then goes up from the open to the close. Historically, the average reading over a 50-day period is just over 25. This means that half the time the market continues in the direction of the pre-market futures during regular trading hours, and half the time it goes the other direction. There are definitely 50-day time periods where the market is continuing in the direction of the pre-market futures more often than not, and there are also periods where it reverses more often than not, but the long-term average is just about 50/50. This shows how difficult it is to pick the direction the market will take on a day-to-day basis.

And if the market seems like it's been pretty difficult lately, you're right. Over the last 50 days, the SPY has gone in the opposite direction of where it opened 26 times and in the same direction 24 times. When the reading is right around 50/50 like it is now, the market is giving investors fits.

in B.I.G.

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (IWM)

Jeremy Siegel: The Great American Bond Bubble

Last week, The Wall Street Journal published a letter from Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel and Jeremy Schwartz, director of research at Wisdom Tree Investments Inc., that likened Treasurys to dot-com stocks of the late '90s before they crashed. The headline: "The Great American Bond Bubble." They noted that yields on some bonds are the lowest in 55 years.

Related ETFs: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Trea (ETF) (TBT), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond (ETF) (TLT)

Fed Says Banks Are Lending Again

Banks have eased lending standards for small businesses for the first time in nearly four years, the Federal Reserve said Monday .

In its new survey of bank lending practices, the Fed found that the loosening of loan standards was occurring primarily at the country's largest domestic banks.

Banks had been reporting relaxed credit standards for big corporations. But the new survey marked the first indication that credit was beginning to ease for smaller companies.

This can be a major shift for the US economy and for the markets as well. Time will tell.

Related Stocks: Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), SunTrust Banks, Inc. (NYSE:STI), Regions Financial Corporation (NYSE:RF), Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLF), Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs(ETF) (NYSE:FAZ), Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF) (NYSE:FAS)

Oil Futures Breaking 50 And 200 Day Moving Averages. That Is Bullish.

Oil futures broke below its 50 and 200 day moving averages on the same day. Since 1990, this is the 20th time oil has broken below both moving averages on the same day. Looking ahead at oil's performance following these occurrences, however, shows that a break of both moving averages isn't the signal of impending doom that some technicians suggest it is. In the nineteen prior periods, oil has averaged a gain of 1.36% over the next week and a decline of 0.25% over the next month. Over each time frame, the commodity has seen gains 58% of the time.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Related ETFs: United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSE:USO), iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE:OIL) , Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLE)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The US Government Bonds Will Collapse

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who warned that unforeseen events can roil markets in “The Black Swan,” said he is “betting on the collapse of government bonds” and that investors should avoid stocks.

in Bloomberg

Dennis Gartman: Bearish On The Euro

“The euro has had a spectacular bounce. Were all of the problems that were attendant and discussed and so obvious in February, March and April of this year, have they been alleviated? Not even slightly. The major trend for the euro is still toward disintegration.”

Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter in Suffolk, Virginia

Related ETFs: PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) , SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV)

Meredith Whitney: Investors Should Avoid Financials At All Costs

"It was a quarter of real revenue shortfalls, real revenue weakness, and I think that is a persistent theme that we’re going to see throughout the next several quarters.

Wall Street didn’t make a lot of head count changes and I think what you’re’ seeing now is the revenues don’t support the expense structure.

Investors should avoid financials at all costs, primarily because of the financial reform bill."

Meredith Whitney

Related stocks: Bank of America Corporation (Public, NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (Public, NYSE:JPM), Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Public, NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (Public, NYSE:MS), Citigroup Inc. (Public, NYSE:C), Fifth Third Bancorp (Public, NASDAQ:FITB), SunTrust Banks, Inc. (Public, NYSE:STI), Regions Financial Corporation (Public, NYSE:RF)

Related ETFs: Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (Public, NYSE:XLF), Direxion Daily Finan. Bear 3X Shs(ETF) (Public, NYSE:FAZ), Direxion Daily Finan. Bull 3X Shs(ETF) (Public, NYSE:FAS)

Stock Pick: Lubrizol (LZ) Going Through 100

Lubrizol (LZ) is one of the strongest stocks, outperforming the majority of US stocks.

I think Lubrizol (LZ) can easily rally to 100 USD per share in a first move, and then breakout to 110-120 USD due to no overhead resistance (this stock is near a all time high).

Trick of the trade:

Buy Lubrizol (LZ) market, place a sell stop at 87.5 (risking 7.5 dollars per share and target 110, representing a 15 dollar per share target)

Alan Greenspan: We Are In A Pause In A Recovery

Alan Greenspan gave a bearish economic outlook this weekend in the "Meet The Press":

"We're in a pause in a recovery, a modest recovery but a pause in the modest recovery feels like a quasi-recession"

Greenspan added that a new recession is possible if housing prices keep trending lower,

"It is possible if home prices go down. Home prices as best we can judge have really flattened out in the last year."

Related stocks: Lennar Corporation (NYSE:LEN), KB Home NYSE:KBH), D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI), Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL), The Ryland Group, Inc. (NYSE:RYL), Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE:HOV), Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), SunTrust Banks, Inc. (NYSE:STI), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), Huntington Bancshares Incorporated (NASDAQ:HBAN)

Natural Gas Stocks Reporting Next Week: Sandridge Energy (SD), National Fuel Gas (NFG) And Devon (DVN)

This week some of the most important natural gas stocks will report earnings, including National Fuel Gas (NFG), EOG Resources (EOG), Devon (DVN) and SandRidge Energy (SD).

Sandridge Energy (SD) has been downtrending for over 10 months, losing 40% in the last 12 months. They have recently acquired Arena and are shifting from natural gas to onshore oil drilling. That may be a good move these days.

Here`s SandRidge Energy (SD) chart:

(click to enlarge)

Art Hogan: Deere (DE) Can Easily Go To 75 USD

Hogan recommended investors buy Deere & Company (NYSE:DE):

“We can easily see this go to $75 in the next 12 months. You get great exposure outside of the US as well.”

Silver And Gold In Oversold Territory

(click to enlarge)

Gold has been trending down recently and Gold Futures moved into oversold territory.

Silver is also at the bottom of its trading range despite the recent dollar weakness. You should expect precious metals to rally when the dollar is downtrending.

Related ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD), iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV)

Related stocks: Hecla Mining Company (NYSE:HL), Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (Public, NYSE:CDE) , Yamana Gold Inc. (USA) (NYSE:AUY) , NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) (AMEX:NG)

James Bullard: The U.S. Is Closer To A Japanese-Style Outcome

“The U.S. is closer to a Japanese-style outcome today than at any time in recent history”

James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President

Morgan Stanley: Fears Are Overdone

"The global economy has momentum. Global growth is at 5 percent over the last 12 months but real global interest rates remain negative. Fears of a double-dip recession are overdone and the risks are now to the upside.

We believe that these fears are overdone. We continue to say 'no' to the double dip, we continue to worry more about the longer-term inflationary risks associated with extreme monetary accommodation, and we doubt that governments in the US and in the large euro-area member states have the resolve to tighten fiscal policy drastically. Monetary policy will face an awkward choice between allowing inflation to run its course and raising interest rates aggressively despite high debt levels.

Our suspicion is, as we have explained in the past, that they would opt for the former – allow higher inflation for some time in order to help reduce the debt burden."

Joachim Fels, the co-head of economics at Morgan Stanley

Related stock: Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)

Best Performers On Earnings: Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG), Janus Capital (JNS) And Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)

"Harley-Davidson, Inc. (Public, NYSE:HOG) has had the best reaction to its earnings report, gaining 13.64% on the day. Janus Capital Group Inc. (Public, NYSE:JNS) and Fifth Third Bancorp (Public, NASDAQ:FITB) are the only other S&P 500 stocks that have gained more than 10% on their report days."

in Bespoke Investment Group

Goldman Sachs (GS): 3 Month Price Target For The S&P 500 >> 1160

"We maintain our 3-month price target of 1160 (+6%) and expect the S&P 500 will rise to 1250 (+14%) at year-end 2010.”

Source: Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (Public, NYSE:GS)

Related: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (Public, NYSE:DIA)

Is The S&P 500 Overbought Or Oversold?

According to this study from Bespoke Investment Group, the S&P 500 Index is now trading at "Neutral" territory, after bouncing from oversold conditions over the last few sessions.

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (Public, NYSE:DIA), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:IWM)

Stocks Have Dropped 0.4% On Average After Reporting Earnings

On average the stocks have been reacting negatively to the earnings report:

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Some notable outperformers were Apple (AAPL), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) to name a few.

Doug Kass: If There Is A Surprise In The Market It Will Be On The Upside

Doug Kass expects a trading range on the S&P 500 both on price and on valuations:

“Between 1025 and 1150 on the S&P, between 11 times and 13 times forward earnings. I’d sell straddles and strangles. We’re not going to have fast money we’re going to have boring money.” (Doug Kass, CNBC)

But even more interesting is his view on a possible surprise move:

"It’s interesting to note that Kass says if he's wrong, he believes the bias in the market is higher largely due to pension funds that could skew into the stock market on a hint the bond market is entering a correction.” (in CNBC.com)

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY) , SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (Public, NYSE:DIA), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS), iShares Russell 2000 Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:IWM)

Motorola Is The Most Overbought Stock In The S&P 500

Motorola (MOT) is trading 3.15 standard deviations above its 50 day SMA. That makes it the most overbought stock in the index according to this metric.

NAHB Homebuilder Survey Is Heading Down Once Again

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

The NAHB Homebuilder Survey is heading down once again, showing that sentiment declined to a 52-week low of 14. The expiration of the homebuyer tax credit certainly is making its presence felt.

That is not good news for the homebuilding stocks. D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), Lennar Corporation (LEN), KB Home (KBH) are probably good shorting candidates.

Doug Kass: S&P 500 Will Range Between 1025 And 1150

"I now view the risk/reward for equities to be roughly in balance, with an anticipated 2010 S&P range of 1,025-1,150 over the remainder of the year."

Doug Kass

ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (Public, NYSE:QID), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F (Public, NYSE:VXX)

Soros Says U.S. Shouldn't Cut Stimulus

“I think the timing is wrong with withdrawing the stimulus. Cutting employment benefits, cutting aid to states that are losing tax revenue, these are counterproductive because you can only grow your way out of the financial crisis"

George Soros, Hamptons Institute in East Hampton, New York, on July 16

ETFs: ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY)

Seery Sees S&P 500 Falling to 900s; Cites `No Growth'

Michael Seery of Olympus Futures and John O'Donoghue, head of equities at Cowen & Co., discuss the outlook for the U.S. stock market. John O'Donoghue, sees support for the market at 1000-1020.

Michael Seery says the big volume days are always on the downside and is very pessimistic about the market. He thinks we will penetrate 1,000 points on the S&P 500 Index in the next 10 days and a bottom may be made at around 900 points.

Watch the full video: Seery Sees S&P 500 Falling to 900s; Cites `No Growth': Video

Related ETFs: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS), ProShares UltraShort QQQ (ETF) (Public, NYSE:QID), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term F (Public, NYSE:VXX)

Jeffrey Immelt: I See The Economy Improving Day After Day

"I see it every day, I see the economy improving day after day. I especially see our orders improving day after day. China, India, Brazil, Africa, the Middle East and resource-rich areas are clearly doing well."

Jeffrey Immelt, General Electric chairman and chief executive

Related stock: General Electric Company (Public, NYSE:GE)

Related ETF`s: iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:EWZ), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (Public, NYSE:FXI), The India Fund, Inc. (Public, NYSE:IFN)

Gap: June Had Lighter Traffic Than We Antecipated

“June was a difficult month with lighter traffic than we anticipated”

Gap’s CFO Sabrina Simmons

Related Stock: The Gap Inc. (Public, NYSE:GPS)

All Stocks Are Moving Together

"In recent weeks, stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index have shown an increasing tendency to move in the same direction at the same time. Last week, those stocks' tendency to move in the same direction as the index hit an extreme not seen since October 1987, according to research by investment group Birinyi Associates in Westport, Conn."

in WSJ

Related ETF`s: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Public, NYSE:SPY), ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (ETF) (Public, NYSE:SDS), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (Public, NYSE:DIA)

Earnings This Week: Alcoa, Intel, Google, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank Of America And GE

The most important earnings releases this week are from:

Alcoa Inc. (Public, NYSE:AA)
CSX Corporation (Public, NYSE:CSX)
Novellus Systems, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:NVLS)
Intel Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:INTC)
Yum! Brands, Inc. (Public, NYSE:YUM)
Marriott International, Inc. (Public, NYSE:MAR)
Fairchild Semiconductor International (Public, NYSE:FCS)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (Public, NYSE:JPM)
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (Public, NYSE:AMD)
Google Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:GOOG)
The Charles Schwab Corporation (Public, NYSE:SCHW)
Bank of America Corporation (Public, NYSE:BAC)
Citigroup Inc. (Public, NYSE:C)
General Electric Company (Public, NYSE:GE)

Source: Bespoke

Stephen Roach: The Recovery Could Be Over

Most Volatile Stocks On Earnings Season

Earnings season will kick off next week and we will list the 5 most volatile stocks on earnings season ranked by the average percent daily move on the earnings announcement:

- the most volatile stock is Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSYS), averaging a 23% move followed by Sequenom, Inc. (NASDAQ:SQNM), First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR), Astronics Corporation (NASDAQ:ATRO) and Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ISRG).

So, if you are looking for some momentum, fast moving stocks this is probably a very good short list.

Take a look at these stocks recent price action (click to enlarge):

Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSYS)


Sequenom, Inc. (NASDAQ:SQNM)


First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR)


Astronics Corporation (NASDAQ:ATRO)



Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ISRG)